Main results of VIMC surveillance project.



Figure 1. Model Illustration

  • IR: Incidence rate; CR: Confirmation rate.


Table 1. Projected population targeted by OCV campaigns and OCV efficiency by surveillance scenario (2022 ~ 2030)

  • This table is calculating the median and 95% CI.
  • Total number of targeted pop and total averted cases were calculated combining all the countries for each of the 200 runs (regardless if there is targeting or not) and the median and 95% CI are calculated using all the 200 runs ;
  • When calculating efficiency, runs without targeting were dropped, the median and 95% CI were based on all runs with targeting going on.


Figure 2. Comparison of OCV efficiency across scenarios

  • Each of the dot in the boxplot represents the median efficiency of each country.


Figure 3. OCV efficiency gained from cholera confirmation at finer scale

  • Figure 3A shows difference between median efficiency of “Clinical only” and “District labs”;
  • The maps (Figure 3B) are showing number of doses administered when doing admin2 targeting and district level confirmation of cholera (district labs);



Tables and figures after submission of preprint

Table 2. Expanded summary table

Assuming cost per dose is 2.30 dollars (1.65 USD procurement + 0.65 USD delivery). NOTE that here the cost is only including OCV campaign cost, without accounting the testing cost (to be added later).


Table 3. Number and proportion of person-year targeted in admins whose true IR exceeds the targeting threshold (summarized across all countries)


Figure 4. Histogram of cases averted and campaign efficiency

(Incidence threshold = 2e-04).


Figure 5. Level of laboratory confirmation with largest efficiency (admin 2 targeting only)

The y-axis represents the mean true IR of targeted admins at baseline


Figure 6. Level of laboratory confirmation with largest efficiency (admin 2 targeting only)

The y-axis represents the clinical IR of the country at baseline


Figure 7. Level of laboratory confirmation with largest efficiency, compare between thresholds

(admin 2 targeting only) for each country there are three bars, from left to right: 0.001, 2e-04, 1e-04 thresholds. The y axis here is the mean baseline confirmed IR of targeted admins.


Figure 8. Level of laboratory confirmation with largest efficiency, compare between thresholds

(admin 2 targeting only) for each country there are three bars, from left to right: 0.001, 2e-04, 1e-04 thresholds. The y axis here is the mean clinical IR of the country at baseline.



Cost effectiveness

Table 4. Cost per averted case (summarized across all countries)

This is also ICER (“no vaccination” scenario as REF.)


Figure 9. Compare cost per averted case with country level GDP (2021, World Bank)

Note: this is admin2 level targeting. Orange dot: GDP per capital (2021); Green dot: GDP per capita * 3


Table 5. ICER (status quo scenario as REF.)

Status quo scenario: clinical case definition + district targeting + 2/10,000 threshold


Figure 10. ICER (status quo scenario as REF.) vs. GDP

Orange dot: GDP per capital (2021); Green dot: GDP per capita * 3



Supplement


Figure S1 Gained efficiency from “Clinical only” to “District labs” (Threshold = 2/10,000 per year)


Figure S2 Gained efficiency from “Clinical only” to “National lab”


Figure S3 Gained efficiency from “National lab” to “District labs”


Figure S4 OCV efficiency over national baseline incidence

Each dot in the figure represents a modeled country.

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Figure S4 OCV efficiency over baseline incidence rate (admin unit level)

Each dot in the figure below represents an admin unit that was targeted at least once, the x-axis is the mean baseline incidence rate of that admin unit (averaged across simulations), either observed IR or clinical IR; the y-axis is the median efficiency of that admin unit (median across simulations).



Figure S5 Zoom in the figures above (efficiency ~ admin level IR)



Table S1 Full table of FVP, averted cases, efficiency, and targeted admin units.


Table S2 Districts excluded from targeting due to small size

  • (I removed one district from KEN (admin1=West Pokot, admin2=unknown 8), this area has 0.1 pop and 0 area)
  • Population here is population size in 2020 (calculated from the raster file);
  • Incidence rate here is calculated from the baseline incidence rate (clinical).


Table S3 Targeted population, averted cases and OCV efficiency of each country

  • This table shows the medians and 95%CIs.


End of file.